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The Argentinean Central Bank (BCRA) said international reserves increased by US$ 1.862 billion in August, closing the month at US$ 48.877 billion. During August, the increase in international reserves was primarily due to the National Treasury's foreign currency income for bonds placements for US$ 6.156 billion.
After showing a lack of direction for much of the day, treasuries came under pressure following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. Bond prices showed a notable move to the downside but climbed off their worst levels going into the close. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 3.4 basis points to 2.277 percent. With the increase on the day, the ten-year yield extended the upward trend seen in recent sessions, reaching its highest closing level in over a month. The weakness among treasuries came after the Fed left interest rates unchanged as widely expected but signaled another rate h**e is l**ely this year. The Fed's projections pointed to a quarter basis point rate increase later this year, with the rate h**e widely expected to come at the December meeting. "We had suspected that the recent softness of core inflation could persuade officials to hold off on the next rate h**e until next year," said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics. He added, "Given these latest projections and the broadly unchanged language on inflation in today's policy statement, we now expect the Fed to push on and raise rates again in December." The Fed also revealed that it will begin shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, initially allowing $10 billion in bonds to roll off each month. In her subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the process of winding down the balance sheet will be gradual and predictable. With the focus on the Fed, traders shrugged off a report from the National Association of Realtors showing an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the month of August. NAR said existing home sales slumped by 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million in August after tumbling by 1.3 percent to a rate of 5.44 million in July. The continued decrease surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to edge up to an annual rate of 5.46 million. With the unexpected decrease, existing home sales fell to their lowest annual rate since hitting 5.34 million last August. Trading on Thursday may continue to be impacted by reaction to the Fed announcement, although traders are also l**ely to keep an eye on reports on weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity.
The European Union (EU) made official the reduction in the tariffs on Argentinean biodiesel, following the decision to reopen the bloc to the product earlier this month. As a result, the Argentinean biodiesel exports to the EU would be taxed at 15% on average. According to the Argentinean Ministry of Agroindustry, the South American country recovers an export destination that in 2011 sold 1,488,710 tons in volume for more than US$ 1.8 billion. In 2013, the EU imposed an anti-dumping measure, with definitive tariffs of almost 25% on the Argentinean product. The case was brought by Argentina to the WTO. Last year, WTO ruled against the UE decision and forced it to drastically reduce countervailing duties for Argentinean biodiesel. On September 8, the body approved in Brussels a drop in import duties to reach a 4.5% to 10% range. The news comes a few weeks after the United States applied a sharp increase in tariffs to import Argentinean biodiesel, which virtually paralyzed local producers' shipments.
The 7.1 magnitude earthquake that shook Mexico on Tuesday has killed 217 people so far, said country's Civil Protection Agency. On Twitter, the National Coordinator of Civil Protection, Luis Felipe Puente, reported that there were 86 deaths in Mexico City, 71 in Morelos, 43 in Puebla, 12 in Mexico state, 4 in Guerrero and 1 in Oaxaca. Puente also warned that it is possible that there are still more landslides and building collapses. Local authorities initially reported two almost simultaneous earthquakes, but later Mexico's National Seismological Service reported that there was only one 7.1 magnitude quake. The epicenter was located 12 kilometers southeast of Axochiapan, in Morelos state, and a depth of 57 kilometers. The most stressing situation at the moment is the ongoing rescue in a collapsed school in Mexico City, where so far authorities report 26 children who died and 30 disappeared. The governor of the capital, Miguel Angel Mancera, decreed the state of emergency in the city. Mexican President Enrique Pe?a Nieto activated a plan to coordinate federal rescue and humanitarian efforts in emergency cases. "The priority at this moment is to continue the rescue of those still trapped and to provide medical care to the wounded," said the president. The tremor hit Mexico's capital only a few days after an 8.1 magnitude quake has left 96 people dead in the country's Southern region. The quake also occurred exactly 32 years after a powerful tremor in Mexico City has killed around 10,000 people.
Crude oil prices continued to rise Wednesday despite a significant build in U.S. oil inventories. With OPEC signaling its determination to curb supplies, oil prices have risen sharply over the past week. Nov. WTI added 79 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $50.69/bbl. Oct. WTI was up 93 cents, or 1.9%, to finish at $50.41/bbl on contract's expiration day. Crude inventories rose for a third straight week, by 4.6 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 15, the Energy Information Administration said today. "OPEC is expected to maintain its strategy of capturing market share during price downturns," the EIA says.
The dollar has sp**ed sharply to the upside against all of its major rivals after the Federal Reserve revealed its policy decision. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 1% to 1.25%. As expected, the Fed said it will begin shrinking its bloated $4.5 trillion portfolio in October by allowing $10 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them. The portfolio includes Treasury and mortgage-backed securities that were acquired during and after the 2007-09 financial crisis in a successful program to prop up the economy. The amount of reductions will gradually rise over the course of the following year to maximums of $30 billion per month for treasuries and $20 billion per month for agency securities, and will remain in place through the process of normalizing the size of the Fed's balance sheet. Hurricanes are unl**ely to materially impact economy in medium term, according to the Fed's statement. "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low," the Fed said. With strained supply levels continuing to subdue overall activity, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Wednesday showing an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the U.S. in the month of August. NAR said existing home sales slumped by 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million in August after tumbling by 1.3 percent to a rate of 5.44 million in July. The continued decrease surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to edge up to an annual rate of 5.46 million. The dollar slipped to over a 1-week low of $1.2032 against the Euro Wednesday, but has since sp**ed to around $1.19. Germany's producer prices increased at the fastest pace in three months in August, Destatis reported Wednesday. Producer prices increased 2.6 percent year-on-year in August, faster than the 2.3 percent rise seen in July. The buck dropped to a 3-month low of $1.3653 against the pound sterling Wednesday, but has since jumped to around $1.3485. UK retail sales grew the most in four months in August as consumers spend more despite higher inflation, vindicating a possible stimulus withdrawal in the months ahead. According to data published by the Office for National Statistics, the retail sales volume including auto fuel advanced 1 percent in August from July, the biggest growth in four months, exceeding the expected rate of 0.2 percent and July's increase of 0.6 percent. The greenback slid to a low of Y110.997 against the Japanese Yen Wednesday, but has since broken out to around Y112.325. Japan posted a merchandise trade surplus of 113.642 billion yen in August, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday. That beat forecasts for a surplus of 104.4 billion yen, although it was down from 418.8 billion yen in July.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 1% to 1.25%. As expected, the Fed said it will begin shrinking its bloated $4.5 trillion portfolio in October by allowing $10 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them. The portfolio includes Treasury and mortgage-backed securities that were acquired during and after the 2007-09 financial crisis in a successful program to prop up the economy. Hurricanes are unl**ely to materially impact economy in medium term, according to the Fed's statement. "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low," the Fed said. The decision culminated a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee against the backdrop of stubbornly low inflation and rising geopolitical tensions. The Fed made no change to its so-called 'dot plot' of rate projections for this year and next, strongly hinting at a December rate h**e. However, the Fed lowered its rate forecast for 2019 to 2.7% from 2.9%. Some analysts thought the Fed might would raise interest rates today because of Chairman Yellen's press conference. With Yellen's commentary able to soothe markets, the Fed raised its benchmark federal-funds rate at its last three press-conference meetings.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 1% to 1.25%. As expected, the Fed said it will begin shrinking its bloated $4.5 trillion portfolio in October by allowing $10 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them. The portfolio includes Treasury and mortgage-backed securities that were acquired during and after the 2007-09 financial crisis in a successful program to prop up the economy. Hurricanes are unl**ely to materially impact economy in medium term, according to the Fed's statement. The decision culminated a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee against the backdrop of stubbornly low inflation and rising geopolitical tensions. The Fed made no change to its so-called 'dot plot' of rate projections for this year and next, strongly hinting at a December rate h**e. However, the Fed lowered its rate forecast for 2019 to 2.8% from 3%. Some analysts thought the Fed might would raise interest rates today because of Chairman Yellen's press conference. With Yellen's commentary able to soothe markets, the Fed raised its benchmark federal-funds rate at its last three press-conference meetings.
Gold Up $6 At $1316/oz Ahead Of Fed Statement
With strained supply levels continuing to subdue overall activity, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Wednesday showing an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the U.S. in the month of August. NAR said existing home sales slumped by 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million in August after tumbling by 1.3 percent to a rate of 5.44 million in July. The continued decrease surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to edge up to an annual rate of 5.46 million. With the unexpected decrease, existing home sales fell to their lowest annual rate since hitting 5.34 million last August. "Steady employment gains, slowly rising incomes and lower mortgage rates generated sustained buyer interest all summer long, but unfortunately, not more home sales," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. "What's ailing the housing market and continues to weigh on overall sales is the inadequate levels of available inventory and the upward pressure it's putting on prices in several parts of the country," he added. "Sales have been unable to break out because there are simply not enough homes for sale." NAR said total housing inventory declined by 2.1 percent to 1.88 million existing homes available for sale at the end of August. Housing inventory is down by 6.5 percent compared to the same month a year ago. The report also said the median existing home price in August was $253,500, down 1.8 percent from $258,100 in July but up 5.6 percent from $240,000 in August of last year. The unexpected decrease in existing home sales came as sales in the South and West plunged by 5.7 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively. On the other hand, NAR said existing home sales in the Northeast jumped by 10.8 percent. Existing home sales in the West also rose by 2.4 percent. The report also said single-family home sales dropped by 2.1 percent to a rate of 4.74 million, while existing condominium and co-op sales climbed by 1.7 percent to a rate of 610,000. Next Tuesday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new home sales in the month of August.
Following the release of the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales for August at 10:00 am ET Wednesday, the greenback traded mixed against its major rivals. While the greenback fell against the euro, it changed little against the rest of major counterparts. The greenback was trading at 1.2000 against the euro, 111.49 against the yen, 1.3557 against the pound and 0.9620 against the franc around 10:03 am ET.
At 10:00 am ET Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its report on existing home sales in the month of August. The economists are looking for consensus of 5.48 million, slightly up from 5.440 million in the previous month. Ahead of the data, the greenback traded mixed against its major rivals. While the greenback held steady against the franc and the pound, it recovered from its early lows against the yen and the euro. The greenback was worth 1.1999 against the euro, 111.47 against the yen, 1.3552 against the pound and 0.9613 against the franc as of 9:55 am ET.
Global growth momentum has improved and is more broad-based now, yet a self-sustained recovery is far from secured as inflation remains subdued and there exists an unmet need for structural reforms, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday. The world economy is set to expand 3.5 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year, the Paris-based think tank said in an interim update for its economic projection. Global growth was 3.1 percent in 2016. The growth forecast for this year was unchanged from the economic outlook report released in June, while the projection for next year was raised by 0.1 point. Expanding investment, employment and trade support have synchronized growth across most countries, the report said. However, the recovery of business investment and trade remain too low to sustain healthy productivity growth, the OECD said. Further, wage growth has been disappointing on average, and not equitable across workers, the report added. "The short-term outlook is more broad-based and the upturn is promising, but there is no room for complacency," OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann said. "Monetary policy should remain accommodative in some economies but with an eye on financial stability so as to remain supportive of further rebalancing towards fiscal and structural initiatives." The economist also stressed that structural efforts must be intensified to bolster the nascent investment recovery, to address slow productivity growth and to ensure the recovery yields benefits for all. The US economy's growth forecasts were left unchanged at 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent for this year and next, respectively. Growth was supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment and job creation has remained strong. That said, the extent to which fiscal easing and regulatory reform may provide an additional boost in 2018 remains uncertain, the report added. Meanwhile, projections for Eurozone were raised from 1.8 percent to 2.1 percent for this year and to 1.9 percent for next year. The OECD attributed the upgrade to stronger growth in key European countries. Growth forecasts for Germany, France and Italy were also raised. Still in Europe, the UK growth forecast for this year and next were left unchanged at 1.6 percent and 1 percent, respectively. The previously identified growth slowdown is expected to continue through 2018, while uncertainty remains over the outcome of negotiations around the decision to leave the European Union, the OECD said. Canada is set to log the fastest growth among advanced economies this year with the country's projection raised to 3.2 percent from 3 percent. The projection for next year was kept at 2.3 percent. Japan's growth forecasts were raised by 0.2 points each to 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. China's projections for the two years were also boosted by 0.2 percentage points each to 6.8 percent and 6.6 percent. In contrast, India's outlook for this year was trimmed by 0.6 points to 6.7 percent and the forecast for next year was cut by 0.5 points to 7.2 percent. The downward revision was due to the transitory effects of demonetization and of the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the group said. Brazil had its forecast for this year slashed by 0.1 point to 0.6 percent, while the prediction for next year was left unchanged at 1.6 percent. Russia had its projections raised by 0.6 points and 0.5 points, respectively, to 2 percent and 2.1 percent.
Libertex: Problemas del euro
Mercado de divisas
El EUR/USD tiene dos pruebas por delante. Primero, ayer los representantes del Banco Central Europeo comentaron que el organismo no favorecía el aumento de la tasa. En el consejo de directores apareció la discordancia de las posiciones sobre la fuerza del euro, provocada por el cambio de rumbo de la política monetaria, lo que pone en duda la terminación del programa de la expansión cuantitativa en octubre.
Según Libertex, el par ya rompió la marca de 1,20 y regresó a nivel de 1,1970. Es posible que se registre la caída prorrogada si interviene el factor de la FED. La reserva Federal llevará a cabo la reunión dedicada a la política monetaria y crediticia. El Comité de Mercados Abiertos preparaba los mercados para la normalización de la política monetaria qué favorecería el dólar. Sin embargo, los detalles son clavé para el análisis.
Primero, el mercado ya está preparado y sabe qué son los planes de la FED, por eso sólo el giro impredecible o los comentarios inesperados pueden provocar la reacción. Las proyecciones sobre el aumento de las tasas estarán en el centro de atención. Si el aumento de diciembre todavía figura en los planes, dólar crecerá. Si en 2018 están previstos tres aumentos de la tasa como mínimo, el dólar crecerá.
En estas condiciones es muy probable el regreso del EUR/USD a nivel de 1,19, pero hay que tener en cuenta que algunos inversores tratarán de comprar el par para abrir las posiciones de largo plazo.
Preparado por Iván Marchena, experto analítico de Libertex (plataforma de forex)
Libertex: Yen y Apple – a crecer
Mercado de divisas
El par USD/JPY puede cambiar la dirección hoy. En los últimos siete días el par crecía en seis casos. Hoy pueden aparecer no sólo las causas técnicas para la gira.
Todo lo anunciado por la FED de EE.UU. ya está incluido en el precio – la reducción de la balanza comercial y el aumento de la tasa de diciembre. Sin embargo, pueden aparecer las noticias inesperadas. Teniendo en cuenta que los indicadores recién publicados (mercado laboral, gastos al consumo y la inflación salarial) se debilitaron, no sería lógico anunciar la actitud agresiva. El estado de la economía no corresponde a las esperanzas. Por eso Janet Yellen prefirió ayer responder de forma indirecta sobre el aumento de la tasa.
El par USD/JPY tiene como el objetivo la marca de 111,00 seguida por 110,40.
Mercado de valores
A partir de 15 de septiembre comenzaron los pre-pedidos de iPhone 8 y iPhone 8S de Apple. Las ventas oficiales empezarán el 22 de septiembre. El lunes o este fin de semana la empresa publicará el volumen de pre-pedidos, que se utilizarán para la evaluar la demanda de nuevos modelos de celulares. Según Bloomberg, el precio objetivo de las acciones de Apple está a nivel de 176 dólares. Además, según Libertex, ahora los precios se acercaron a nivel inferior de la tendencia alcista que va desarrollándose a partir de noviembre de 2016. Por eso es lógico abrir las compras a niveles actuales. El objetivo inmediato es la marca de 165,00.
Preparado por Iván Marchena, experto analítico de Libertex (plataforma de forex)
Libertex: ¿Qué hacer con el euro?
Mercado de divisas
El par EUR/USD hizo lo que había sido pronosticado, pero necesitamos comprender que pasará después. Es necesario recordar qué provocó la venta del par. Es el optimismo excesivo de Janet Yellen y la confirmación del otro aumento de la tasa este año.
Según Libertex, el dólar ganó unos puntos. Sin embargo, el crecimiento fue provocado por las palabras no tienen nada que ver con la realidad económica. La inflación crece lentamente, la actividad comercial baja, puede haber más daño causado por los huracanes. El daño se sentirá en octubre y noviembre. Cuando el mercado vuelve a recordar esto, el par empezará a bajar.
Hay una causa más para comprar el euro a niveles actuales. La caída del par no se debe a la situación económica en la zona de euro. Al contrario, un representante del BCE dijo hace poco que la inflación iba a alcanzar el nivel objetivo. Además, los políticos alemanes confirman que el tipo de cambio actual no deteriora las exportaciones de Alemania. Es muy importante, porque el político indirectamente indica que no es necesario debilitar la moneda comunitaria artificialmente.
Cada confirmación del endurecimiento de la política monetaria del BCE favorecerá el euro. El objetivo inmediato actual es la marca de 1,20.
Libertex: Bitcoin bajó, pero el factor chino es temporal
Mercado de divisas
Después del pánico bursátil en el mercado, las criptodivisas trataron de recuperar lo perdido y, según Libertex, en algunos momentos Bitcoin alcanzaba la marca de 4100. Sin embargo, por ahora criptomonedas no pueden regresar a los niveles altos. Al mismo tiempo una nueva oleada de crecimiento es posible.
La situación en China que causó la caída de Bitcoin no influirá en el mercado de la manera radical. Según un estudio realizado en la Universidad de Cambridge, en China hay sólo 8% de proveedores de criptomonederos. Es decir, el negativo estará dentro del país. Si China prohíbe mining (50% de capacidades del acyivo se concentra en este país), Japón puede sustituir a los miners chinos. Por consiguiente, Bitcoin no será impactado drásticamente.
Hay que tener en cuenta que ahora 40% países del mundo controlan la circulación de las divisas de la manera total. En estos países las criptomonedas gozarán de la demanda adicional. Así fue en China. Además, se supo que Malasia no iba a prohibir Bitcoin. El banco central del país planea elaborar las normas regulatorias para las criptomonedas.
Además, los pasos de Google también favorecerán Bitcoin esta semana. Se puede pedir la realización del pago en Bitcoin en la aplicación modernizada Payment Request API.
Por lo tanto, a nivel de 3300 Bitcoin puede ser interesante para comprar con el objetivo en 4100,00.
Libertex: NZD retrocede debido a la política
Mercado de divisas
Por ahora vale la pena prestar atención al par NZD/USD. A pesar de que el mercado está siguiendo ahora el proceso electoral en Alemania, los pares con NZD tienen dinámica muy interesante debido a las elecciones nacionales. A pesar de que el partido del primer ministro actual ganó 46% de votos, no se puede formar gobierno sin hacer coaliciones. En este caso su partido tendrá que aliarse con First Party, su mayor rival en la carrera electoral.
En este caso no nos interesan las particularidades. Las fechas son más importantes para los inversores. Antes de que se forme el gobierno, el dólar neozelandés estará bajando. Para el 7 de octubre se habrán calculado todos los votos. Para el 12 de octubre el líder de First Party habrá decidido con que fuerza política se puede formar gobierno. Hasta este momento el NZD/USD irá a la baja, acelerándose después de los cometarios pesimistas de los políticos. Sería lógico entrar vendiendo el par NZD/USD (según Libertex, el par está ahora a nivel de 0,7280) después de la primera corrección alcista teniendo como el objetivo la marca de 0,7200, seguida por 0,7160.
Libertex: Yen está fuerte ahora
Mercado de divisas
Según Libertex, el par USD/JPY se tropezó a nivel de 112,70 y no puede seguir adelante, a pesar de que el dólar está gozando de la demanda adicional causada por las esperanzas del aumento de la tasa de la FED.
Hay varias explicaciones. Primera, es la intervención de geopolítica en el proceso comercial. Corea del Norte y los EE.UU. siguen intercambiando de amenazas. Teniendo en cuenta que los líderes actuales son muy expresivos, el mercado puede estar preocupado durante un periodo prorrogado, encontrando refugio en los activos seguros. Por ejemplo, el yen está en esta lista.
Además, el par crecía durante un periodo largo y es la hora de la corrección normal después de alcanzar la resistencia fuerte. La corrección de USD/JPY normalmente constituye 100% del movimiento anterior.
Por último, la posición del dólar también significa mucho. La semana pasada el banco central tenía la actitud optimista y agresiva. Pero todavía no está claro si esto tiene relación a la realidad económica. Los últimos comentarios son menos optimistas. Los representantes de la FED insinuaron que no tendría sentido tener mucha prisa. Si los comentarios posteriores son más suaves, el par bajará.
Libertex: Petróleo — con qué amenaza la paralización del oleoducto curdo Kirkuk–Ceyhan. La posible recuperación del euro
Petróleo — con qué amenaza la paralización del oleoducto curdo Kirkuk–Ceyhan. La posible recuperación del euro
Mercado de bienes y materias primas
El lunes, 25 de diciembre, los precios de petróleo de la marca estándar Brent renovaron los máximos de 2017 después de que el presidente turco amenazó con bloquear el oleoducto que termina en el puerto Ceyhan en respuesta a la consulta popular sobre la independencia de Kurdistán.
Los contratos de Brent que se expirarán en noviembre en la bolsa ICE en Londres estaban a nivel de alrededor de 58,00 dólares el barril y alcanzaban en algunos momentos la marca máxima de 2017 de 58,87. El estándar norteamericano WTI ganó 2% y alcanzó el nivel de 51,95.
El oleoducto Kirkuk–Ceyhan tiene la capacidad de 700 mil barriles diarios. Si Erdogan cumple su amenaza y lo bloquea, se eliminará una gran parte de la oferta mundial. Es un poco menos que 20% de la capacidad productora de Iraq y casi la mitad de las cuotas acordadas en el acuerdo de reducción de la producción.
Teniendo en cuenta la disposición de curdos de ganar independencia y la postura dura de Turquía, que está dispuesta a lanzar un ataque militar, el bloqueo del oleoducto es bien probable. Al mismo tiempo el conflicto puede ser duradero. No parece que Turquía esté dispuesta a aceptar que Kurdos, apoyados por los actores fuertes de relaciones internacionales, ganen la independencia.
Supongo que la suspensión del oleoducto puede encarecer el Brent en 3-4 dólares. No hay que esperar choques significativos. La apreciación del oro negro de manera incontrolable no corresponde a los intereses de la OPEP, que por ahora tiene libres capacidades productivas y está dispuesta a compensar por los volúmenes eliminados. En esta situación el Brent puede tratar de consolidarse por encima de 60-62 dólares el barril. Es poco probable que el activo crezca por encima de este nivel, porque hay riesgos del aumento de la producción por los productores del petróleo de esquisto en EE.UU.
Mercado de divisas
El par EUR/USD bajó abruptamente en últimos días y retrocedió hasta los mínimos de agosto (según Libertex, es el nivel de alrededor de 1,1716). La caída era tan drástica debido a la influencia simultánea de diferentes factores.
Primero, la FED sorprendió a los corredores de mercado con su persistencia. Yellen insinuó que el aumento de la tasa de interés era bien probable. A comienzos de setiembre la probabilidad de la realización de este escenario estaba a nivel de 25%. Ahora el mercado da 80%.
Segundo, los resultados de la carrera electoral alemana presionaron el euro, porque Sra. Merkel perdió 8.7% de votos en comparación con las últimas elecciones. Esto pone en peligro la estabilidad en la economía más grande de la zona de euro.
Tercero, EUR/USD estaba creciendo durante un largo periodo de tiempo y ya llegó la hora de corrección. Sin embargo, se encuentra por delante el soporte sólido a nivel de 1,17, que puede parar la caída. Por eso a este nivel el par parece atractivo para comprar, especialmente teniendo en cuenta la posible terminación de la política de expansión cuantitativa dentro de dos semanas.
En estas condiciones el par EUR/USD puede recuperarse y crecer hasta 1,1860.