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At 10:00 am ET Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its report on existing home sales in the month of August. The economists are looking for consensus of 5.48 million, slightly up from 5.440 million in the previous month. Ahead of the data, the greenback traded mixed against its major rivals. While the greenback held steady against the franc and the pound, it recovered from its early lows against the yen and the euro. The greenback was worth 1.1999 against the euro, 111.47 against the yen, 1.3552 against the pound and 0.9613 against the franc as of 9:55 am ET.
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Global growth momentum has improved and is more broad-based now, yet a self-sustained recovery is far from secured as inflation remains subdued and there exists an unmet need for structural reforms, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday. The world economy is set to expand 3.5 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year, the Paris-based think tank said in an interim update for its economic projection. Global growth was 3.1 percent in 2016. The growth forecast for this year was unchanged from the economic outlook report released in June, while the projection for next year was raised by 0.1 point. Expanding investment, employment and trade support have synchronized growth across most countries, the report said. However, the recovery of business investment and trade remain too low to sustain healthy productivity growth, the OECD said. Further, wage growth has been disappointing on average, and not equitable across workers, the report added. "The short-term outlook is more broad-based and the upturn is promising, but there is no room for complacency," OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann said. "Monetary policy should remain accommodative in some economies but with an eye on financial stability so as to remain supportive of further rebalancing towards fiscal and structural initiatives." The economist also stressed that structural efforts must be intensified to bolster the nascent investment recovery, to address slow productivity growth and to ensure the recovery yields benefits for all. The US economy's growth forecasts were left unchanged at 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent for this year and next, respectively. Growth was supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment and job creation has remained strong. That said, the extent to which fiscal easing and regulatory reform may provide an additional boost in 2018 remains uncertain, the report added. Meanwhile, projections for Eurozone were raised from 1.8 percent to 2.1 percent for this year and to 1.9 percent for next year. The OECD attributed the upgrade to stronger growth in key European countries. Growth forecasts for Germany, France and Italy were also raised. Still in Europe, the UK growth forecast for this year and next were left unchanged at 1.6 percent and 1 percent, respectively. The previously identified growth slowdown is expected to continue through 2018, while uncertainty remains over the outcome of negotiations around the decision to leave the European Union, the OECD said. Canada is set to log the fastest growth among advanced economies this year with the country's projection raised to 3.2 percent from 3 percent. The projection for next year was kept at 2.3 percent. Japan's growth forecasts were raised by 0.2 points each to 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. China's projections for the two years were also boosted by 0.2 percentage points each to 6.8 percent and 6.6 percent. In contrast, India's outlook for this year was trimmed by 0.6 points to 6.7 percent and the forecast for next year was cut by 0.5 points to 7.2 percent. The downward revision was due to the transitory effects of demonetization and of the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the group said. Brazil had its forecast for this year slashed by 0.1 point to 0.6 percent, while the prediction for next year was left unchanged at 1.6 percent. Russia had its projections raised by 0.6 points and 0.5 points, respectively, to 2 percent and 2.1 percent.
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Libertex: Problemas del euro
Mercado de divisas
El EUR/USD tiene dos pruebas por delante. Primero, ayer los representantes del Banco Central Europeo comentaron que el organismo no favorecía el aumento de la tasa. En el consejo de directores apareció la discordancia de las posiciones sobre la fuerza del euro, provocada por el cambio de rumbo de la política monetaria, lo que pone en duda la terminación del programa de la expansión cuantitativa en octubre.
Según Libertex, el par ya rompió la marca de 1,20 y regresó a nivel de 1,1970. Es posible que se registre la caída prorrogada si interviene el factor de la FED. La reserva Federal llevará a cabo la reunión dedicada a la política monetaria y crediticia. El Comité de Mercados Abiertos preparaba los mercados para la normalización de la política monetaria qué favorecería el dólar. Sin embargo, los detalles son clavé para el análisis.
Primero, el mercado ya está preparado y sabe qué son los planes de la FED, por eso sólo el giro impredecible o los comentarios inesperados pueden provocar la reacción. Las proyecciones sobre el aumento de las tasas estarán en el centro de atención. Si el aumento de diciembre todavía figura en los planes, dólar crecerá. Si en 2018 están previstos tres aumentos de la tasa como mínimo, el dólar crecerá.
En estas condiciones es muy probable el regreso del EUR/USD a nivel de 1,19, pero hay que tener en cuenta que algunos inversores tratarán de comprar el par para abrir las posiciones de largo plazo.
Preparado por Iván Marchena, experto analítico de Libertex (plataforma de forex)
